I found a screenshot on my phone from March 2022. A Ryanair flight from Bergamo to Madrid, 19 euros, no bags, no extras. I texted it to a group chat with the caption "this is why Europe is undefeated." Two weeks ago I checked the same route. The lowest fare was 67 euros, an that was before adding a carry-on bag, a seat selection, and the priority boarding that's basically mandatory if you wanna bring anything larger than a sandwich bag on board.
Nineteen euros to sixty-seven euros is a 252 percent increase in four years. Wages didn't go up 252 percent.
the golden era of cheap flights is over
Between 2015 and 2019, European budget carriers engaged in what analysts now call a capacity war. Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz Air, and Vueling were adding routes and aircraft at a pace that defied profitability. Ryanair ordered 300 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s in a single deal. Wizz Air expanded into the Middle East and Central Asia. easyJet went after Turkey and Egypt. The strategy was simple. Flood the market with cheap seats, drive competitors out, an raise prices once dominance was established.
That second part kicked in round 2024. Oil prices stabilized above $80 a barrel, a level that makes ultra-low fares unsustainable. Airport charges climbed, with Amsterdam Schiphol, London Gatwick, and Barcelona El Prat all raising per-passenger fees. Labor costs rose across the industry after pilot and cabin crew unions won back contracts eroded during the pandemic.
The result is a fare structure that looks like a budget airline but spends like a legacy carrier. A one-way easyJet flight from London Luton to Faro in July 2026 averaged 114 euros with a standard carry-on an a chosen seat. That's what British Airways was charging five years ago on the same route. The gap between budget an legacy has narrowed to almost nothing on most European routes.
the fee architecture is where they really get you
I booked a family trip to Crete last month. Four tickets on Ryanair from Milan Bergamo to Chania. Base fare: 44 euros each. That sounded reasonable til I began clicking through the booking flow. Seat selection for four people who wanna sit together: 8 euros per person each way. Priority boarding so we could bring actual luggage: 6 euros per person. One checked bag: 35 euros. The booking was dropped with a debit card that incurred a 2.5 percent surcharge because apparently Ryanair has rarely heard of a free payment method.
Total per person: 93 euros one way. Return was similar. thats 186 euros round trip per person for what was advertised as a 44-euro flight. The actual cost was four times the headline fare. I sat with my laptop and pieced together a comparison. If id booked Aegean Airlines, the legacy carrier on that route, with a checked bag included, the total was 210 euros round trip. Twenty-four euros more for a full-service airline with free food and drinks and a reasonable baggage allowance.
The travel agency I used to plan my bookings stopped recommending budget carriers for family trips in early 2026. The agent told me flat out, "the fee math doesn't work for groups anymore. You're better off on a full-service airline nine times outta ten."
consolidation is making things worse
Europe's budget airline market has been consolidating aggressively. Wizz Air acquired a controlling stake in ABTA's Hungarian operations. easyJet absorbed some of Norwegian's short-haul network after Norwegian retreated from long-haul. Ryanair tried to buy Aer Lingus and was blocked by regulators, then tried again with a different structure. The fewer competitors there are on a route, the less pressure to keep fares low.
I clocked this personally on routes where Ryanair faces no competition. Seville to Fez, Morocco: Ryanair is the only carrier and the cheapest fare in August was 95 euros one way with nothin included. Bergamo to Brindisi: Ryanair and easyJet both fly it, an the fare was 39 euros. The correlation between competition and price is almost mechanical at this point.
ghost destinations and stranded travelers
Routes that were opened during the capacity war and then abandoned when they weren't profitable created ghost destinations. My friend Petra booked a vacation rental in Kutaisi, Georgia, based on cheap Wizz Air flights from Budapest. Wizz cancelled the route in March 2025 with two weeks' notice. She lost her rental deposit. The flight was the only reasonable connection to Kutaisi from Central Europe.
the american budget airline collapse was a warning
Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2024. Frontier and Spirit explored a merger that fell apart over antitrust concerns. Sun Country pivoted to charter and contract flying. The US budget airline model collapsed cuz ultra-low fares couldn't survive $90 oil an $200 round-trip checked bag fees that drove customers back to Southwest and JetBlue.
europe is next in line
Europe's budget carriers are healthier than the American ones because they have higher load factors and denser route networks. But the underlying economics are converging. Ryanair posted record profits in 2025, but those profits came from fees and ancillary revenue, not from selling cheap tickets. Ancillary revenue per passenger hit 26 euros in the last fiscal year, up from 16 euros five years earlier. The ticket is no longer the product. You are the product.
what i do now instead
I still fly budget carriers for solo trips where I'm traveling light. One backpack, nah checked bag, no seat selection, no priority boarding. In that narrow scenario, Ryanair or easyJet can still be the cheapest option. For anything involving a family, luggage, or even a modest desire to sit next to the person I'm traveling with, I compare budget an legacy side by side and pick based on total cost.
My travel rewards credit card helps. Most of the major carriers earn 2x or 3x points on flights, and the annual fee offsets the difference between a budget base fare and a legacy fare with included baggage. I've zeroed in on a simple rule: if the all-in budget fare exceeds 70 percent of the legacy fare, book legacy. youll get more for the money.
I also book earlier than I usta. The 19-euro fares still exist, but only on routes where Ryanair is tryin to crush a fresh competitor. They appear in January and February for summer flights and vanish within days. If you're booking three months out, you're paying the post-competition price. That's the fresh normal. Cheap flights aren't dead, but they require the timing of a day trader to catch.